Violence and Justice in Mexico: Why Institutional Trust Matters

This dissertation examines the role of the judiciary and police force in keeping law and order in a community, specifically in regards to violence reduction. While most studies presume that a focus on institutional performance is the key to optimizing these institutions' ability to reduce violence, I offer a different approach and show that a focus on trust in the institution is the critical component to violence reduction. I show that historical processes of democratization and liberalization impact the amount of trust a state's political institutions have; and the resulting trust continues to affect the institutions' ability to reform and impose a rule-of-law. Drawing from Mexico's 2,438 municipalities, I quantitatively demonstrate through a zero-inflated negative binomial model that trust in the institution is a driving force behind the institutions' ability to reduce violence. I compliment the statistical model with three in depth case studies of Oaxaca, Baja California and Mexico State. During field research in these states from 2012 to 2013, I surveyed and interviewed local populations as well as collected many official documents regarding the status of violence and justice in the community. These case studies demonstrate that an institution's trust is often a legacy of each state's historical experience with political democratization and economic liberalization. The result is a nation with varying levels of trust in the institution, and thus, varying capabilities to impose a rule-of-law and reduce violence. I argue that thin institutional reform--in an attempt to impose a rule-of-law and reduce violence--has historically failed and will continue to do so unless trust in the institution is first addressed. In the wide expanse of social science research, academics and policy makers often neglect the importance of trust in the institution, perhaps because it does not lend itself easily to analysis, or perhaps because it cannot easily be addressed via public policy. In the course of this analysis, I attempt to convince the reader, quantitatively and qualitatively, that trust matters and is in fact the key-holder to continued democratic development.