The key to winning the White House in 1996

The purpose of this research is to analyze the 1996 presidential election between Senator Robert J. Dole and President William Jefferson Clinton using Allan J. Lichtman's book, The Keys to the White House, 1996 , as a guide. The following study takes a look at the Dole campaign and compares it with Lichtman's theory, which purports to be a surefire guide to predicting the outcome of elections long before election day. For the first time, The Keys to the White House is scrutinized by an actual presidential candidate---Bob Dole. Despite obvious disagreements the candidate had with Lichtman's theory, which held that there was nothing Dole could have done to win, there is much agreement in the logic behind the keys. This thesis analyzes each of the thirteen keys and uses material gathered from interviews, polling data, and historical research to further bolster the effectiveness of the keys, or to refute the validity of certain keys. Rather than relying on polls and campaign strategy, an accurate prediction can be made by using historical conditions alone. In the end, the reader will better understand that the "key" to predicting future elections is done by understanding the past.