The Ramifications Of Racial Competition: Racial Prejudice, White Identity, Policy Conservatism, And Trump Support

There has been an emerging contemporary debate between scholars, journalists, and political practitioners over antecedents of Trump support among Whites. The debate has largely divided into an "economic anxiety" (Turney et. al. 2017) and racial prejudice (Mutz 2018) camp. This dissertation offers a potential synthesis for the economic anxiety and racial prejudice Trump debate by introducing a model of racial competition. Drawing on the group conflict (Blumer 1958; Bobo and Hutchings 1996) and racial proximity (Key 1949) literatures, I argue that resource competition among White and Black Americans, especially in areas with significant Black populations, is associated with increases in racial prejudice, policy conservatism on issues related to race, and Trump support among Whites. While answering these important political questions, this dissertation informs theories of prejudice by investigating how group conflict and racial proximity interact. The concept of power threat is central to this dissertation. Ultimately, racial competition is about competing for a type of power. Whites facing racial competition experience power threat when they perceive a decline in group power. Whites may experience power threat on political, economic, cultural, or demographic dimensions, producing feelings of anxiety or powerlessness. This sense of powerlessness drives higher levels of racial prejudice and conservative political attitudes.

The first chapter of this dissertation explores how material economic competition is associated with racial prejudice and conservatism on issues related to race. The second chapter investigates the link between perceived racial competition and racial prejudice, White racial identity, and Trump favorability. The third chapter is a survey experiment which tests the causal relationship between racial competition and racial prejudice, White racial grievance, and Trump support. The second and third chapters test and compare the effects of different types of competition—political, economic, cultural, and demographic—and show that political and cultural competition generally have the strongest effects. This systematic analysis offers evidence for why racial competition matters at the national level. The racial competition model offers valuable insights for scholars exploring the intersections of race, prejudice, populism, and polarization in American politics.