Stealing their thunder: The effectiveness of military force in deterring terrorism

Since 9/11, terrorism has received much attention from the media and, subsequently, the public. Although this attention is new, terrorism has been in existence for over 2000 years (Hoffman, 1998). The attacks in 2001 did change the way the world views terrorism, however, and also increased the tempo of counter-terrorism efforts. Aggressive counter-terrorism policies have now been in use for nearly a decade; therefore, it is imperative that their effectiveness be assessed. The use of military force is the principal method employed by many nations to combat and deter terrorists, yet this method may prove to be a greater liability than benefit (Eppright, 1996). Despite their endeavor to reduce terrorism using a deterrence approach, contemporary military force strategies, I argue, have incited greater levels of terrorism. In order to assess military force as a strategy against terrorism, this dissertation conducts three analyses that systematically progress the evaluation. The first of these analyses is focused on identifying and measuring the relationship between terrorism and military force using a cross-section of data. The second analyses further the investigation by directly addressing the endogeneity between terrorism and military force through employing a vector auto-regression model and testing for causation using one of the largest datasets of its kind. Based on these results, the final chapter of analyses develops an instrumental variable in an effort to ascertain the quantifiable impact of military force on terrorism. The three analyses used in this dissertation present findings far more valuable than each analysis alone. Collectively, they offer insight into how effective military force is in combating terrorism. Findings suggest that the use of military force is most likely a poor choice to save lives from the hands of terrorism. It increases the likelihood of terrorist incidents and, although capable of saving lives, it is a very expensive method for this purpose. Resources could be allocated to more cost effective methods to save lives and property.