REVOLUTION IN NORTHERN IRELAND? A CASE STUDY

This study seeks to show that Northern Ireland has been undergoing a revolution by Catholics since 1969. The Irish Republican Army has used terrorism as a revolutionary strategy because it has not had the strength to directly engage British forces in battle. The J-curve theory of revolution has been applied to the situation in Northern Ireland. This theory states that revolution occurs when there has been a long period of improving conditions with concomitant rising expectations which is followed by a loss, or the perception of loss, of gains made. In order to determine if there had been improvements in the situation of Catholics in Northern Ireland, several indices of material well-being were examined. These included employment, housing, migration and transformation of the occupational structure since World War II. Content analysis of newspaper editorials was used to ascertain the social psychological aspects of the situation, such as rising expectations and perceptions of gain or loss. In the J-curve theory, perceptions are often more important than reality because people will react to a situation based on fears created by their perceptions. The data analysis showed that in all the factors of material well-being there had been a significant period of steady improvement followed by a sudden loss (in some cases actual and in others perceived or feared) of gains made. These results were supported by the content analysis of editorials. It was concluded that, if the J-curve theory were applied to events in Northern Ireland during the 1960s, it is clear that a revolution has been occurring there. Terrorism by the IRA is the revolutionary tactic of a weak force against a much stronger one. The British cannot be defeated militarily, but the British public can put pressure on the government to withdraw. Through its use of terrorism the IRA attempts to manipulate public opinion to create the belief that remaining in Northern Ireland is a liability rather than an asset. Thus, terrorism plays an important role in the revolution as the main tactic available to the IRA in its battle with the British.