Petroleum profits and participatory politics: Evaluating the empirical validity of the Rentier State Theory

This study traces the evolution of the Rentier State Theory, quantifies its primary components, and rigorously tests the extent to which the negative impact of economic rent upon the advancement of democracy in the Arab world can be substantiated empirically. Through a series of multivariate regressions done on the primary components of the Rentier State Theory and quantitative democratic indicators, little empirical evidence was found to support the common hypotheses espoused in rentier literature. In fact, there is every indication that many of the assumptions concerning the relationship between the sources of state revenue and national political behavior are actually contrary to empirical evidence. While groundbreaking in bringing a quantitative, more systematic dimension to a largely qualitative field of political inquiry, further research is needed to further substantiate the conclusions drawn in this study and to more fully understand the impact of regional oil wealth in shaping Arab political development.