Persuaded by the polls? Voter responses to election polling information

Since the advent of election polling, scholars, practitioners, and public observers alike have long debated the potentially troubling normative effects of these polls, and election forecasts more generally, on voter behavior and, ultimately, on the outcomes of the elections that these polls ostensibly seek to forecast. While the debate remains ongoing, the contemporary media landscape has rapidly shifted in the era of cable news and online media outlets, with political polling and election predictions taking a central role in the ways in which an increasingly diverse media chooses to cover elections. Subsequently, modern statistical techniques and elections polling have combined to broaden both the supply and demand of polling-centered media, drastically changing the ways in which both the public and media interacts with political polling. Subsequently, this dissertation offers an in-depth exploration of the relationship between exposure to election polling and individual-level electoral behavior. Comprising three interrelated areas of research, this work 1) tests how polling exposure influences individual voter behavior across a range of electoral contexts, 2) examines how political donation behavior is driven by political polling and, 3) evaluates how voter perceptions of candidate characteristics are shaped by horserace polling results. In evaluating these three related areas, this dissertation will offer a broad examination of polling effects, beyond mere conventional voting behavior, while offering contemporary evidence about the role and effects of election polling and forecasting in the modern media environment.