Images of the Soviet threat: Complexity and change in the beliefs of four American presidents

In his first term, President Reagan publicly stated that the Soviet leadership was immoral; the Soviet empire, evil. Yet by 1988, Reagan dismissed these earlier comments as belonging to "another time, another era." What happened?; This work recognizes the dramatic events unfolding within the Soviet Union beginning in 1985 and explores the impact of these events on perceptions held by American foreign policy decision makers. This research focuses on the images held by Presidents Carter, Ford, and Nixon, in addition to those of Reagan, and investigates the degree of belief system change which occurred from the time each held office to the period 1985-1990. A comparison of the results for these four presidents provides an opportunity to assess the impact of cognitive complexity in belief system change. Researchers have highlighted examples of the seemingly dichotomous, hard-line rhetoric of Reagan's first term and the apparently accommodating, more complex rhetoric of his second term. This research investigates whether changes in complexity are related to changes in beliefs. The interplay of these two important cognitive variables is explored by testing the following hypothesis: given an "external shock" to an individual's belief system, the greater an individual's level of cognitive complexity, the greater the expected degree of belief system change. Belief systems are represented using operational code theory. Integrative complexity theory is used to depict cognitive complexity. There is some detectable change in the belief systems of all four presidents. Nixon and Ford display the most change; unexpectedly, Reagan posts the least. Carter falls in between. Not unexpectedly, this ranking order is similar to that found when comparing integrative complexity scores. Nixon has the highest scores, followed by Carter, Ford, and Reagan. The results also suggest a positive relationship between an individual's level of cognitive complexity and the degree of belief system change. Despite the indications of change, however, the image of the Soviet threat seems to have survived intact or enhanced in the beliefs of two former United States presidents (Reagan and Nixon), while the threat has lessened in the beliefs of two other presidents (Ford and Carter).