Hegemonic stability in East Asia in the 1990s: Myth or reality?

Measuring great power potential, especially in the post Cold War era when post World War II superpower alignments are increasingly becoming invalid, has perhaps never been more important. Applying the theory of hegemonic stability, however, can go far in helping predict great power potential in various regional subsystems. However, the theory of hegemonic stability is imprecise, and its application may fail to stress the importance of a variety of national characteristics that may contribute to hegemonic potential in a particular nation. This paper applies Ray Cline's quantitative formula that measures national perceived power to the theory of hegemonic stability and uses quantitative methods to assess national hegemonic potential in the East Asian subsystem. The paper identifies the key characteristics of national power in the region and utilizes Cline's formula to generate a rank list of potential hegemonic powers. The paper concludes with an assessment of the prospects for hegemonic stability in East Asia and offers alternative scenarios for power relationships in the coming decade.