Examining the differential returns from robbery incidents

This study investigates whether the differential returns from robbery incidents can be explained in terms of how these crimes are committed. Past research relying on offender surveys have failed to explain the difference between successful and unsuccessful criminal events because of its reliance on the offender as the unit of analysis, potential sample selectivity problems, and ambiguous definitions of success. Focusing on the offender and not the incident limits our understanding in important ways. Specific attributes of the incident, such as the offender's tactics, target characteristics and situational characteristics, are neglected or overly generalized. This research uses victimization surveys, which provide incident characteristics linked to outcomes, to test the "tactical choice analysis" model for street robberies. The model predicts that successful robbers use tactics and target victims that maximize intimidation and avoid exposure thereby increasing the likelihood of completion, payoff and arrest avoidance for a given crime. Specifically, this research examines whether the characteristics of how street robberies are committed, as predicted by the "tactical choice model," are significantly related to the probability of: (1) crime completion, (2) monetary payoff, (3) arrest avoidance, and (4) an integrated overall measure of incident success. 2,387 robbery incidents from the 1993--1998 National Crime Victimization Survey incident file are examined using multivariate regression techniques. The results show that the specific attributes of the criminal event are able to explain the differential returns for street robbery incidents for a given measure of success. The findings do not provide complete support for past research examining robbery incidents. The failure for this convergence with offender surveys is discussed in terms of sample selection, definitions of success, and statistical methodology. The findings are discussed in relation to selective crime prevention, and future research objectives are outlined.