EXPORT BEHAVIOR OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPERIENCING RE-SPECIALIZATION AND CRISIS

Export diversification and specialization patterns of developing countries are different from those of developed countries. Additionally, exporters' behavior during a crisis differs from that of non-exporters. In this dissertation, I examine the types of export goods developing countries have specialized in to understand what macroeconomic factors drive such patterns. I also examine firm-level exporter behavior to determine how financial vulnerability affects export prospects during a crisis.

In the first chapter, I use a panel of 81 developing countries from 1990 to 2019 to analyze export re-specialization patterns of developing economies. I estimate the turning point of the Theil Index to identify countries that have re-specialized and examine the changes in technology, commodity, and service intensity of these countries, pre- and post-re-specialization. I find that trade liberalization strongly correlates with the incidence of export re-specialization.

In the second chapter, I examine the case of Mexico as the country has been on a path of increasing export re-specialization since the early 1990s. I use an event study methodology to analyze the impact of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Mexico's product-level export pattern as the re-specialization incidence coincides with the agreement's implementation. I find that the agreement positively impacted low domestic input-intensive "Maquiladora" products and that the re-specialization permanently shifted production into these products.

In the third chapter, I use Chilean manufacturing firm data from 1995 - 2005 to examine the impact of the 1998 sudden reversal of foreign capital inflows on firm export market performance. I consider Chile's case as a pseudo-natural experiment and tease out the effects of being financially constrained on export firm performance. The results show that financially constrained firms face lower export incomes during the crisis. These effects are compounded when depending on imported inputs but extenuated if using foreign capital.