Counterfeit and contraband cigarette smuggling: Opportunities, actors, and guardianship

Contraband and counterfeit cigarette smuggling provides organized crime and terrorist organizations with a sizable revenue stream that does not come with the risks and punishments that are associated with other illicit commodities, such as drugs and weapons. This global crime often involves participants in several countries and each market has its own set of circumstances. Thus, the illicit cigarette market is very complex, occurs simultaneously at different levels, and requires a multiple method approach for its study. This dissertation uses qualitative and quantitative methods, structured by the routine activities theoretical framework, to analyze the problem of cigarette smuggling. The quantitative portion is a cross-sectional analysis conducted on data from 93 countries. In the bivariate Tobit analyses, relationships between the dependent variable, illicit cigarette consumption as a percentage of legitimate market, and several independent variables were significant and suggests that a state's ability to govern in many sections of society affects cigarette smuggling. In the multivariate Tobit analyses, the final sale price is significant without control variables. When the control variables are included, the models once again suggest that being able to govern effectively and score low on the Failed State Index is related to a reduction in the percentage of the cigarette market that is illegal. The qualitative, case study portion of the dissertation focuses on Turkey's documented problem with the smuggling of counterfeit and contraband cigarettes. The case study examines various aspects of Turkish society and data includes interviews with Turkish National Police officers, government documents, and various open sources written in English. It appears that taxation; regulations and laws; the fractioning of guardianship; the existence of a "deep state" and corruption; the roles that culture, history, and geography play; social acceptance of smuggling; governmental policies related to the "Kurdish problem;" and the underdevelopment of southeastern Turkey seem to affect the country's illicit cigarette market. There is evidence that the PKK is involved in cigarette smuggling; however, many of the smugglers operating in the southeast region participate in the trade because they have few legitimate opportunities to earn a living.