CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OF SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS IN THE GREAT-POWER TRIANGLE: THE APPROACHES OF CYBERNETICS, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, AND SOCIAL FIELD THEORY

This study has four objectives: (1) to move toward a more systematic approach in the analysis of Sino-American relations by applications of theoretical models, and to bring to bear some up-to-date quantitative methods; (2) to collect a considerable amount of quantified data through reviewing two major and relevant newspapers--Jen-min Jih-pao (1965-71) and the New York Times Index (1980-81); (3) to conduct exploratory work comparing the validity of three competing explanations for conflict and cooperation in great-power triangle--the cybernetic theory of communication and interaction versus the social-psychological theory of image and cognitive balance versus social field theory of attributes; and (4) to discover how closely interlocked are the behaviors of the USA, the PRC and the USSR. Through the applications of cybernetics, social psychology, and attribute theory, eight hypotheses are developed and empirically tested. Three pre-theories are supported in different degrees by the findings of partial correlation and multiple regression analyses. Among the most noteworthy of the results which contribute to theoretical development and policy relevance are the propositions that: (1) Action, feedback and learning are the key concepts to understanding Sino-American relations. (1.1) Between 1950 and 1973, the occurrences of Chinese internal conflict and prior year conflict toward the USA are positively related with Chinese conflict behavior toward the USA. (2) Chinese images toward the two superpowers and the cognitive balance model serve as important determining factors for Chinese conflictual or cooperative behaviors. (2.1) When the intensity of Chinese threat perception of the USSR increased, the conflict behavior sent by the Chinese to the USSR decreased. (2.2) In PRC-USA relations, the USSR conflictual interactions with each country make a significant impact on the countries' behavior toward each other. (3) Attribute distances play a moderate role in predicting conflictual and cooperative behaviors. The author concludes that each of the three different theoretical approaches proved to be appropriate in differing circumstances and that there is some evidence to indicate that they can be usefully combined as data becomes more readily available.