Global governance : three futures

Since the end of Cold War, three sets of actors have produced change in global governance, change that could be threatening and transformative for existing global governance institutions and the future of international cooperation. Three alternative futures have emerged: fragmentation, stagnation, and transformation. Emerging powers—and some established powers—have promoted new regional institutions that offer useful competition but also the threat of fragmentation. Divergence of preferences between emerging and incumbent powers have also produced stagnation, but the greatest threat of stagnation has come with the rise of populist and nationalist movements that have now found a voice in two powerful countries, the U.S. and the U.K. Finally, non-state and subnational actors have produced new modes of governance, in which national governments and intergovernmental organizations play a reduced, though often strategic role. United States withdrawal from or disruption of global governance would alter the likelihood that these futures will emerge.