Measuring disagreement in qualitative survey data

To measure disagreement among respondents in qualitative survey data, we propose new meth ods applicable to both univariate and multivariate comparisons. Based on prior work, our first measure quantifies the level of disagreement in predictions of a single variable. Our second method constructs an index of overall disagreement from a dynamic factor model across several variables. Using directional forecasts from the Centre for European Economic Research Finan cial Market Survey, we find that our measures yield levels of disagreement consistent with point forecasts from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. To illustrate usefulness, we explore the source and predictive power of forecast disagreement.