It's the Economic Message, Stupid : The Campaign and the Economic Vote

Do partisan campaigns affect the strength of the economic vote? Against the controversial expectation that political candidates have little influence over when and to what extent economic voting occurs, I argue that political communications systemically condition the strength of the economy-vote link. I evaluate these competing claims through analysis of the 2006 Mexican presidential election. The Results show that political communications profoundly affect the economic vote. In 2006, economic messages primed economic considerations and proved decisive in determining the election outcome, altering the final vote tally by 8 points. More broadly, the results demonstrate the power of political campaigns to overcome structural conditions thought to advantage or disadvantage incumbent-party candidates. This begins to explain the seemingly anomalous victories of challengers in economic booms and reelection of incumbents in busts.