American University
Browse

Three decades of globalisation : which countries won, which lost?

Download (851.11 kB)
journal contribution
posted on 2023-08-05, 12:51 authored by Bernhard GunterBernhard Gunter, Britni Wilcher

The world average exports-to-GDP ratio increased from 17% in 1985 to 27% in 2015. Hence, world exports have grown much faster than world GDP. However, despite this overall trade integration, which is a key aspect of globalisation, the exports-to-GDP ratios have declined for 29 of the 118 countries with such data from 1985 to 2015. Some countries have been driving globalisation, while others have become marginalised. This paper examines three decades of globalisation to shed some light upon which countries might be considered winners and which countries might be considered losers of globalisation. After summarising the evolution of income and income per capita, we examine the evolution of exports and net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Contradictory to previous decades, we show there are now many countries from all income groups that have either experienced marginalisation or been driving globalisation. We then use novel regression analysis to review the robustness of generally accepted drivers of globalisation and marginalisation, with education and macroeconomic stability being the two most robust determinants.

History

Publisher

World Economy

Notes

World Economy, Volume 43, Issue 4, 1 April 2020, Pages 1076-1102.

Handle

http://hdl.handle.net/1961/auislandora:85485

Usage metrics

    Economics

    Categories

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC