Social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic : who are the present and future non-compliers?

Social distancing is an effective means for containing the spread of COVID-19, but only so if we all participate. Who are the individuals who are the least likely to adhere to social distancing recommendations, presently and in the long-term? Such knowledge is important for policymakers looking to sustain the public's buy-in to social distancing. Using survey data from sample U.S. residents (n = 1,449), we show that some demographic factors (gender, age, race, political party) help predict intent to adhere to social distancing. Yet demographic factors are relatively poor predictors compared to individual attitudes and media diets. We argue that public officials should make efforts to inform and persuade the public of the importance of social distancing, targeting mediums like TV and radio where audiences are less likely to currently engage in social distancing or are less likely to envision themselves sustaining strict social distancing for several weeks or months.